Serving Whitman County since 1877
Serving Whitman County since 1877
McMorris Rodgers
The term would have drawn a blank from many wheat growers only five years ago: falling numbers.
Last Friday, it was the subject of a special meeting called by Congresswoman Cathy McMorris-Rodgers at the Colfax headquarters of the McGregor Company.
Assembled with about 50 representatives of farms, grain elevators, grain organizations, WSU researchers and more, McMorris Rodgers listened to input. In summation, she suggested four main areas to consider: the need for a new test to be developed, discussing short-term options to help farmers, including a possible (disaster or emergency) declaration and perhaps even congressional hearings, as Rep. Mary Dye suggested in the meeting.
“Should we seek some kind of declaration? I’m open. I need to know from an industry perspective, nationwide,” McMorris Rodgers said.
She also asked for input on crop insurance, on whether that could be tapped into in the short term or it was more a matter for the 2018 farm bill.
“We’re gonna see more hurt next year than this year,” said Bruce Nelson, a grower in Farmington. “I think it’s gonna be somewhere between 100 to 150 million. It’s not just hurting us, it’s hurting the whole economy.”
Falling numbers refers to the stage at which starch and protein start to break down in a wheat kernel. Wide temperature swings in May and June have contributed in some areas to the phenomenon.
The threshold number is set at 300, anything below is deemed lacking, which affects sales.
The term is LMA – late maturity alpha-amylase – the change in the kernel from starch to sugar.
The 300 refers to 300 seconds in the test method of how long a plunger takes to sink through a mixture of ground flour and water.
“The sense of urgency we feel from farm families we’ve known for many years is very real and painful,” said Alex McGregor in the meeting’s closing comments.
McGregor opened the session, saying that growers are being punished with discounts for reasons beyond their control. These discounts, from exporters to country elevators, vary considerably.
“There’s not a lot of uniformity to it,” Glen Squires, CEO of Washington Grain Commission, told the Gazette later.
McGregor called for a better test.
“In an age of advancing technology, surely there’s a better way to test than what was developed when I was an eighth-grader in a two-room schoolhouse half a century ago,” he said.
McMorris Rodgers then called on individuals to speak.
Judy Olson, Farm Services Agency Director, talked about having a small amount of emergency loans.
She relayed that 30 percent of economic loss is the bar, with most of the programs based on yield.
That in itself is the twist of falling numbers – it has arrived in a year of particularly high yields.
Don Potts, who manages Spokane’s Washington Department of Agriculture’s grain inspection office, spoke next.
“What we’d love to see is a whole grain analyzing test, much like protein,” he said.
Further complicating matters, he said grain is getting different results at elevators on the Palouse than field offices in Portland.
“On the barges, there’s some big swings,” said Potts. ”But the wheat is gorgeous. High test weight, low dockage.”
“The hardest hit areas are not done harvesting yet,” said Damon Filan of Tri-City Grain. He continued to estimate that 2016 will be a 40 or 50 million bushel increase in the crop.
“It’s not a moneymaker for anybody,” he said.
He talked about the Japanese, for example.
“What they’re looking at is a consistent quality for their flour mill,” Filan said.
McMorris Rodgers next called on Paul Katovich, general manager of Central Washington Grain Growers.
“It’s a logarithmic blend, not a linear blend,” he said. “Longer term, we need a grain analyzer. Never waste a good crisis. This is it.”
Glen Squires reiterated that it is “not rain induced, it’s the temperatures.”
“In the midwest, they’re dealing with unbelievable low protein,” he said. “Maybe the Phillippines will be willing to lower their spec a bit, to save money... These are the discussions we’re having with buyers around the world.”
Rep. Dye spoke.
“This is a disaster that’s unfolding in the industry,” she said. “The majority of the cost is being borne by individual growers... for something that is out of their control.”
She noted the reliability of the test too – which was developed in 1961.
“A test that is variable at best, questionable at worst,” she said.
Asking McMorris Rodgers to hold congressional hearings, she issued a last question:
“What we need to know; why are the discounts being borne disproportionately on the growers?”
Next planting
Will this affect what farmers plant this fall?
“It’s possible,” said Ryan Higginbotham, director of WSU Cereal Variety Testing, who was at the meeting. “This was a unique year. But they might decide to spread the risk out more.”
Different varieties of wheat are affected in varying ways by falling numbers.
“We’re still without enough information to be able to say what is more prone or what is less prone,” Higginbotham said. “There isn’t a complete package out there yet.”
WSU’s Western Wheat Quality Laboratory is now looking into the falling numbers tests — its work rearranged for the fall after the falling numbers issue arose in July.
“Commencing study now, we hope to have a report in November,” said Craig Morris, director of the Western Wheat Quality Laboratory.
One item they will consider is a test used in Australia, said to be more effective.
“We’re evaluating some of these existing technologies,” said Morris, whose lab is largely funded by the Washington Grain Commission. “Should the Australian test be used here? That’s another judgment call.”
What now
In 2013, the Washington Grain Commission began testing wheat at WSU for LMA.
“Some areas had been hit,” said Squires. “It wasn’t a widespread problem. The big challenge, is this a one-year deal? This is the first time that I’m aware of that this has hit so widespread.”
After harvest is fully complete, grain elevator companies will consider possible blends to reach customers’ specifications. Taking batches of 285 wheat and mixing it with batches of 340, for example.
“I’ve heard of some coming in at 400,” Squires said. “If it gets so low, 90-110 or so in falling numbers, it’ll go to feed wheat.”
The quest will be to satisfy a buyer’s specifications.
If Japan, for example, says ‘we need 300, that’s our specs’ – just like maximum protein specifications – that can be the bottom line.
If that is the case, is there enough 300-level wheat in the world to buy this year?
“I believe there’s enough,” Squires said of sources in Canada, Australia, France or otherwise. “I believe they’ll be able to find it in the Pacific Northwest. It’s still early.”
The situation will be clearer in December and January, when the elevators move fully into marketing season.
Garth Meyer is a former Whitman County Gazette reporter.
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