Emergency Management panel hears state earthquake scenario

The Whitman County Local Emergency Planning Committee held its bi-monthly meeting Thursday, April 19, and took in a presentation on the threat of a potential earthquake in the Seattle-Tacoma area.

What does that have to do with Whitman County?

Dan Dolan, Ph.D., P.E., WSU Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, told of just how much it would.

What is called the Cascadia fault runs from Redding, Calif., to Vancouver Island, B. C. It is a rare subduction fault, as opposed to the slip faults of California, which generally produce 20 seconds of shaking in an earthquake.

Dolan said 360 seconds of strong shaking could come out of Cascadia.

The U.S. Geological Survey estimates a 20 to 30 percent chance of a large earthquake happening on the fault. Dolan noted that the two worst earthquakes in U.S. history occurred in New Madrid, Mo., a year apart, in 1811 and 1812.

“It rang the bells in Boston,” he said.

He talked about the age of buildings along the Cascadia fault.

“One percent of buildings designed under the current code might collapse,” said Dolan, noting that thousands were built before the current code. Why new structures are built the way they are is because of Cascadia, as codes reflect the magnitude of potential damage from certain faults.

Dolan ran through developments that may occur in the event of a large earthquake near Seattle-Tacoma-Portland, one of which was “high-rise refugees.”

“Would you want to carry water up 30 floors to be able to flush your toilet?” Dolan said.

This led to the impact on Whitman County. Demand for first responders and the National Guard would mean less workers in those roles here.

“How do you manage your skeleton crews?” Dolan said.

More of the Whitman County work force would be expected to go west; engineers, architects, contractors.

“I-90? Dream on,” Dolan said. “The new 520 bridge is set up for this, to be the lifeline for this.”

With I-90 and other routes disrupted, supply to Whitman County would need to come from the east: Billings, Salt Lake City, Denver, or the air, while the military works to install temporary bridges to restore better access out of Puget Sound – although depending on the time of year and extent of damage to bridges in Snoqualmie Pass, for example – could last nearly a year.

An influx of people to Whitman County would be expected too.

“We’re not gonna see damage here directly, but we’re gonna see the effect of it,” Dolan said.

Shipping of Whitman County farm products would be another matter. He noted the two railroads through the Columbia Gorge to Ports of Portland and Vancouver might no longer function.

The Cascadia zone extends east to the top of the Cascades, Dolan said, running through Washington from Portland north to Everett, Blaine and beyond.

“Yakima will probably feel it,” said Dolan. “Victoria is gonna be a mess. Port Angeles is gonna be a mess.”

He recommends counties, cities all have a draft plan.

“When people are under that level of stress, people don’t think logically,” Dolan said. “They think emotionally a hundred percent of the time.”

Dolan, who has been on the faculty at WSU since 2002, will go to the University of San Sebastian, in Santiago, Chile, in July on a year-long Fullbright Fellowship to help the government of Chile on building code revisions.

The Whitman County committee members took in Dolan’s perspective.

“It’s information to add to (the plans) we have,” said Bill Tensfeld, Whitman County Emergency Management director. “To get all the people in that room talking about it. Some of our Eastern Washington crew, they’re gonna be on the front line in Seattle if this happens.”

Tensfeld noted that an exercise two years ago showed that Whitman County residents should be prepared to survive two weeks on their own, in the event of a disaster.

After Dolan, the meeting continued and covered various topics as the committee sat at tables in a U-shape, each with a yellow frisbee placed in front of them, imprinted with “Whitman County Emergency Management.”

“Remember everybody to take your emergency dog waterer home with you,” Tensfeld said to conclude the meeting, flipping over the frisbee in front of him.

By Garth Meyer

Gazette Reporter